Freddie Mac Goes Door Knocking to Help Struggling Homeowners Complete Loan Modifications

According to this Freddie Mac news release, FREDDIE MAC STARTS DOOR-TO-DOOR EFFORT HELPING BORROWERS COMPLETE HOME AFFORDABLE MODIFICATIONS, Freddie Mac "has hired Titanium Solutions, Inc. to meet with delinquent borrowers at their homes and help them supply missing information, documents and complete other actions needed to begin their three month trial payment periods for Home Affordable Modifications under President Obama’s Making Home Affordable program. Titanium Solutions will target late-paying borrowers with Freddie Mac-owned mortgages who have not returned letters or phone calls sent by their servicers, or who need to provide additional information or documents to launch their three-month Home Affordable Modification trial periods. Titanium will also help those borrowers who have started their Trial periods complete the documentation process to enable them to be converted into final modifications."

The release quotes Ingrid Beckles, Senior Vice President of Default Asset Management at Freddie Mac, as saying "By meeting with our borrowers, one on one, in their homes Titanium Solutions can help them overcome the roadblocks keeping them from starting their Home Affordable Modification trial periods. We believe this can give borrowers seeking Home Affordable Modifications the same type of personalized guidance they may have had when they were buying their home or applying for their mortgage.

Overall, I think this door knocking is a good idea since most homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, or are already in foreclosure, just stop communicating with the lenders and try to ignore the whole thing (not a good idea). Struggling homeowners should openly engage their lenders to see what options they have. A loan modification may indeed be the best option, however, most people do not qualify for a loan modification due to insufficient income (think unemployed) or too much overall debt.  While I do not think that loan modifications can solve the foreclosure crisis we are currently in, for some folks it is the best option.

My recommendation is that if you are a homeowner in financial distress you should contact your mortgage company immediately to discuss a loan modification even though you do not have a good chance of getting a loan modification approved. Some chance is better than the no chance you will have if you do nothing. You may also want to speak with a real estate attorney and/or bankruptcy attorney to discuss your options. If a loan modification will not work, or is not approved, then you need to speak with a REALTOR who specializes in short sales and pre-foreclosures (preforeclosures) to discuss selling your home when you owe more than your home is worth and/or you are not able to pay your monthly mortgage payments. If you live in the following areas, please contact me as I can help you get out of this situation.

• Rutherford County Tennessee: Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN and La Vergne TN (LaVergne TN)
• Williamson County Tennessee: Brentwood TN and Franklin TN
• Davidson County Tennessee: Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN

Could Tighter Loan Underwriting Standards Hurt the Housing Recovery?

According to this RISMEDIA article, Credit Woes to Threaten Housing Recovery?, "Nearly two-thirds of single-family home builders are reporting a severe lack of credit for housing production, threatening the fragile housing recovery before it has time to take hold, according to a new builder survey of acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)."

The article quotes NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa OK, as saying "Across the country, home builders and developers are reporting a deterioration in credit availability and intensifying pressure on borrowers with outstanding loans. Lenders are cutting off loans for viable new housing projects and producing unnecessary foreclosures and losses on AD&C loans. With the pending expiration of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, these challenges threaten to halt any positive developments we have seen in the housing market in recent months.  There can be no meaningful economic recovery until the flow of credit is restored to housing."  (My thoughts: Since when has housing been a legitimate driver of the economy for any extended period of time?  How can over priced asset prices such as housing create long term jobs?)

According to the article, the most recent NAHB survey of AD&C financing conditions, showed that some 63% of builders thought that the "availability of credit for single-family construction loans worsened in the second quarter of 2009."

The article states that home builders reporting worsening credit conditions cited the following reasons for the decline in lending:

• 80% said that lenders are lowering the allowable loan-to-value ratios.
• 76% reported that lenders are not making new loans."
• "75% stated that lenders are reducing the amount they are willing to lend"
• 62% said that lenders are requiring personal guarantees or collateral not related to the project.

According to the survey "Two-thirds of respondents reported putting single-family construction projects on hold until the financing climate gets better."

The article notes that lenders, as an explanation for the reduced lending activity, have told home builders that banking regulators are forcing them to tighten lending standards.  Federal regulators, on the other hand, say that they have not restricted lenders from making more loans.

The article states that the "NAHB believes that regulators and lenders should provide leeway to residential construction borrowers who have loans in good standing by providing flexibility on re-appraisals, loan modifications and perhaps forbearance on loans to give builders time to complete and sell their inventory."

I have to say that I have had enough of this nonsense.  We do not need more credit to help a housing market that has imploded as a result of too much credit.  I do have a serious problem with lenders due to their taking of taxpayer bailout monies and their grossly incompetent handling of short sales and foreclosures, but I do not blame them for reducing their loan activities or tightening their credit standards in the face of rising unemployment and increasing loan delinquencies.  It appears that the NAHB is doing nothing but advocating something that will help home builders sell their over priced homes to naive home buyers - all at tax payer expense as these loans go bad and the federal government steps in to continue to bail out the lenders that made these loans when the financially strapped home buyers need to short sell their homes and/or fall into foreclosure.

Therefore, the answer to the blog post title question is "No" for the following 2 reasons.

1. There is no actual housing recovery. Housing prices continue to fall and foreclosures continue to increase.  Where is there is more than average government intervention, such as CA with their $10,000 new construction home purchase tax credit, there has a been a slight bump in prices that will only get worse when that government intervention is stopped.
2. Tighter housing credit will actually the housing market in the long run due to weeding out financially unstable buyers. Long term housing market stability is the most important thing now.

Given the absurdly high levels of new construction still going on and available for purchase in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County: Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN and La Vergne TN) the housing market here will continue to decline for years to come as there will be more builder bankruptcies, short sales and foreclosures in the Middle TN market.

Peterbilt Permanently Closing Middle Tennessee Plant

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, Peterbilt permanently closing Tennessee plant, effective 12/1/2009 Peterbilt Motors Co., the well known truck manufacturer, will shutter the Madison Tennessee (located in Davidson County TN northwest of Nashville TN) plant. According to the article, "The Madison plant had not built trucks since July 2008, when the company and the United Auto Workers Local 1832 were unable to agree on a new contract. But company officials said the decision to shutter — and eventually close — the plant was a result of falling demand for the heavy-duty trucks, not because of labor issues."

The article quotes Bill Jackson, Peterbilt General Manager, as saying "This was a difficult, but necessary decision. The current and projected market conditions are very challenging and Peterbilt is aligning its production capacity with market demand. Peterbilt is proud to have been a member of the greater Nashville community for 40 years and we thank our employees for their excellent contribution."

According to the article, all of the company's truck manufacturing will move to Peterbilt's other plant in Denton, Texas. The article states "The 2,000-worker facility, which does not have union representation, announced layoffs there in January, though the company didn’t specify how many jobs were impacted, saying only that it was a small number. At the Nashville plant, 313 workers were laid off in June 2008 when the contract expired, according to the Tennessee Department of Labor."

While Peterbilt officials said that the Madison TN plant closing was a result of market conditions, not union/labor issues, I have to believe that the union was a major factor in the plant closing. The fact is that unions cause companies to earn less and to layoff workers in order to remain competitive. In this case the union caused the loss of at lease a large percentage of the 313 lost jobs. Given that 25% of homeowners have no savings to cover their living expenses if they were to lose their jobs (see my previous blog post Too Many Homeowers Have No Savings) I think it is reasonable to conclude that more job losses will cause more short sales and foreclosures in Middle Tennessee as a large percentage of unemployed people in Middle TN cannot pay their mortgages even for a short period of time due to a lack of savings.

Experts: More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Economy

According to this RISMEDIA article, More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Economy, despite Recent Improvements, several prominent experts in real estate and the economy who attended a recent forum at the Nixon Presidential Library said that despite recent signs of improvement more rough times are ahead for the U.S. economy. The event was organized and moderated by real estate analyst and investor Bruce Norris of The Norris Group in Riverside CA. the event included experts from the California Building Industry Association, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, RealtyTrac, The Appraisal Institute and the National Auctioneers Association.

The RISMEDIA article quotes Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics regarding increases in durable goods orders, exports and auto sales as saying "You look at the numbers and everything points to the fact that we not only have bottomed, but things seem to be improving. When you think about the problems we’ve been through and what government has done, in many ways, they have, in fact, stabilized the economy. But you know what? They haven’t actually solved the underlying problems in the economy. The second half of 2010 will be very weak. 2011 will be very grim." According to the article, Thornberg cited real estate as a case in point. The article states that while home sales are up in some areas of the country, 6-7% of residential mortgages across the US are now 60 to 90 days delinquent. According to the aritcle, in California 250,000 mortgages are 60 to 90 days late. Thornberg believed that more economic trouble is coming soon due to rising unemployment and additional waves of foreclosures. If you remember my past blog posts I have been saying this for months (i.s. the coming foreclosures of Option ARM's).

The article noted the following thoughts and comments of the forum panelists:

• All of the panelists agreed that the economy will turn the corner in 2-3 years, but several panelists thought that things would get worse before improving.
• John Young, vice president of the California Building Industry Association, noted that new housing construction starts are at their lowest levels since the early 1950s and that new home sales are being hurt by appraisals coming in lower than the contract sale prices.
• Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, a leading online marketplaces for foreclosures, noted the nation has had 43 consecutive months of foreclosures.  He said "We’re dealing with foreclosure activity that is six times what it would be in a normal market."  He also said that the legal and legislative efforts aimed at helping consumers modify the terms of their loans “merely delay the inevitable" given that modified loan terms will not help people who lose their jobs.  Sharga said he sees another big wave of foreclosures hitting the market next year as a result of rising unemployment rates, which are expected to peak during the first quarter of 2010, and the resetting of adjustable rate mortgages to higher rates.  Sharga also said that the real estate market is being hurt by a "shadow inventory" of 400,000 to 500,000 homes, which have been taken foreclosed and taken back by lenders, but have not been put back on the market for resale.  I have been saying that the number of REO's far exceeds the number being offered for sale for a while now.  When the Option ARM's start to reset this is going to break the proverbial flood gates wide open.

Of course there was the normal refrain of from a former president of the National Association of REALTORS who wants Congress to expand the home purchase tax credit to $15,000 for all home buyers.  Per my previous blog posts I think this is a bad idea because it will artificially inflate home prices resulting in more bubble bursting when the tax credits are finally stopped.

The forum organizer, Bruce Norris, recommended that Congress take the following actions to help the real estate market:

1. "Increase the number of loans made available to well capitalized investors: Expand Fannie and Freddie loan programs from a maximum of 10 loans per investor to an unlimited number of loans for qualified investors."
2. "Make the 203K FHA loan program available to investors: A 203K loan allows a property needing work to be purchased “as is,” but included in the loan amount is money for repairs. The loan funds both the purchase and rehab of the property. Investors need this loan now, but this loan is currently only available to owner occupants. FHA previously made this loan available to investors, but stopped the practice in 1996 when HUD ran out of lender owned, fixer uppers. Banks could solve the vacant house problem by giving investors back the 203K loan program."
3. "Eliminate the 90-day waiting period before a repaired property can be sold to a buyer using an FHA loan: Investors who purchase fixer uppers can often completely repair the property in a matter of weeks. But the current law prohibits investors from reselling the property within 90 days. The assumption is that fraud must be taking place if a property is resold within 90 days. It’s ridiculous to assume that every investor who purchases a property, improves and resells it is committing fraud. All this policy does is increase investors’ costs of purchasing and rehabbing vacant homes.
4. Allow loans to be taken over by credit-qualified new buyers with no down payment. Through this process, which was successfully used in the 1980s, new buyers simply step in and take over the loan payments. The only stipulation is that the loan has to be made current at the close of escrow. The U.S. currently has about one million owners who will not be capable of keeping their homes without a huge discount on the principle balance. Many of these properties have fixed rates at very favorable rates. Allowing willing and capable buyers to come in and take over these loans would help contain the spread of foreclosures across the country.

I agree with Mr. Norris' first 3 points, but I fail to see how allowing delinquent loans to be "taken over by credit-qualified new buyers with no down payment" will help the market when the real problem is that the loan balances exceed property values.

Thornberg, thought that it is "not realistic to assume that our nation’s economic problems will be solved by increased regulation or by presidential action. The economy simply needs some time to heal itself.  I have tremendous faith in the U.S. economy rebounding again in the future.  When we come out of this in two or three years, we’re going to have cheap housing and a weak dollar, which will be good for exports."

I agree with Mr. Thornberg in that cheap housing is good for the economy. The problem is that the Obama Administration is doing so much to artificially prop up housing values.  Why would they do this?  The answer is that the Obama Administration and their Democrat friends are bailing out their Wall Street and banking buddies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG and Goldman Sachs.  Don't believe me?  Go find out who the largest campaign contribution recipients from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG (hint: Barney Frank, Christopher Dodd and Barack Hussein Obama).

In my market in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford Couny TN in particular) I believe that the effect of all this will be worse than average due to higher than average unemployment rates and foreclosures.  Housing prices in Middle Tennessee will continue to fall well into 2012.

National Association of REALTORS: Existing-Home Sales Decline in August 2009

According to this National Association of REALTORS (NAR) news release, Existing-Home Sales Ease Following Four Monthly Gains, sales of existing homes (includes single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops) declined by 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August 2009 from a pace of 5.24 million in July 2009. According to NAR, this is 3.4% above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. Over the previous four month span from April 2009 through July 2009, sales had risen a total of 15.2%.

The news release states that according to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, the first time home buyer tax credit is working. The release quotes Yun as saying "Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions. Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can’t take a housing rebound for granted."

The news release goes on to state that a NAR practitioner survey shows that for August 2009, first-time buyers accounted for 30% of home sales and that distressed homes accounted for 31% of home sales. Both of these figures were unchanged from July 2009.

The release goes on to quote Yun as saying "The recent trend shows broad improvement in most of the country, but with an expected rise in foreclosures over the next 12 months we need to maintain a healthy level of ready buyers to absorb the inventory. An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market. Now that the market is showing some momentum, we have an opportunity to achieve a more rapid and broader stabilization in home prices. Extending and expanding the tax credit also would help to keep other families from becoming upside down in their mortgages or risk foreclosure. When home prices show sustained gains, credit will become more widely available to other sectors because Wall Street will be able to price risks confidently. Stable home values will also allow more families to purchase consumer products and provide a strong boost for the broader economy."

According to the news release, in the Southern US, existing-home sales were down 3.1% to an annual pace of 1.89 million in August, but are 1.6% above August 2008. The median price in the South was $157,400, which is 11.0% lower than the same period in 2008.

While this seems fine and dandy, I have a problems with the "spin" on these statistics.

• Number of Home Sales - Other than for REALTORS and other folks who generate income when homes sell, and as a result, need to turn units, this figure is just not that important unless it reaches extreme levels as it says little about the overall health of the housing market.  For example, if homes were worth $1 there would be a lot of sales, but the market would be devastated.
• Home Prices - The sale prices of homes declined by 10%+ in every region of the US.  This is further evidence that the market has not hit bottom yet.
• Tax Credit - I find Yun's comments including "An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market." to be laughable.  First, qualified buyers do not need a government subsidy to "enter the market" buy a home. What they need are AFFORDABLE HOMES, which the market is giving us as only a free market can!  We do not need an artificial government subsidy that will temporarily inflate home prices only to see those prices fall when the subsidy is discontinued. Yun says he want to have home prices "show sustained gains" so that "credit will become more widely available." Given that this whole financial mess was caused by credit being too widely available it is utterly foolish to try to expand credit further.  All we need to save the economy is to have homes reach prices that are sustainable based on people's incomes, not debt.