Thursday, November 5, 2009

US Government Provides Funding For 95% Of Mortgages

US Government Provides Funding For 95% Of Mortgages

According to this article, Recent Developments in Mortgage Finance, in the October 26, 2009 edition of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco newsletter, the US government (via Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae) are now providing unprecedented support for the US housing market by "owning or guaranteeing almost 95% of the new residential mortgage lending."  In other words, the US government is currently providing the funding for 95% of all residential mortgage loans.  Therefore, when you hear that "the banks are starting to lend again", what is really happening is that the banks are operating as little more than glorified loan brokers by selling nearly all their loans to the federal government via Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae (see the graph below courtesy of the FRBSF).

The article goes on to state "This shift in mortgage finance has had a profound impact on the types of borrowers receiving loans. In the fourth quarter of 2006, approximately 10% of originations in our sample were labeled by originators as "subprime." For the entire universe of mortgages, subprime loans are estimated to have made up about 20% of originations in 2006. By the first quarter of 2008, the subprime share was effectively zero. Since then, increased FHA lending—identified here by Ginnie Mae's share—has revived this segment of the market. After plummeting in early 2008, the share of borrowers with FICO credit scores lower than 660 has returned to just higher than 20%, the same share as when subprime securitization peaked in 2006. The collapse of nonconforming loan originations has had a particularly strong impact on the higher end of the market. The share of jumbo mortgages was nearly 9% at the peak in 2006. By the end of 2008, jumbo loans accounted for just 3% of new originations. Meanwhile, in another big shift, option ARMs made up about 6% of originations in the fourth quarter of 2006. By year-end 2008, option ARMs had vanished from the data set." What this means is that the US government has taken the place of the subprime lenders that went belly up due to making too many bad loans and that the US government, as a % of total loans made, is making just as many subprime loans as the now defunct subprime lenders did during the peak of the subprime feeding frenzy. In my opinion, the result of this will be more foreclosures and short sales which will cause massive losses that the US taxpayer has to ultimately pick up all because we refuse to tell people that they cannot afford to buy a home. Common sense has truly left this country.

The article concludes "With the vast majority of current mortgage lending now intermediated in some form by the GSEs, it will be difficult for the housing market to return to normal." What this means is that it is going to be nearly impossible for the housing market to be weaned off of artificial and unsustainable government support. The end result will be disastrous when the government "market proppping" is eventually discontinued. That is why I know for sure that the housing market is not recovering. What we are seeing is a mirage created by artificial artificial support. Even the mirage is not that pretty, so the reality is that much worse. The US housing market will continue to suffer for the next several years with the worst to come within the next 3 years.

If you are a homeowner in Middle Tennessee who cannot pay your mortgage (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, etc.), or your home is already in foreclosure, or you owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including loan modifications or short sales. I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I serve real estate owners, homeowners and investment property owners in Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN. If you do need to short sell your home (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home), or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.