Experts: More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Economy

According to this RISMEDIA article, More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Economy, despite Recent Improvements, several prominent experts in real estate and the economy who attended a recent forum at the Nixon Presidential Library said that despite recent signs of improvement more rough times are ahead for the U.S. economy. The event was organized and moderated by real estate analyst and investor Bruce Norris of The Norris Group in Riverside CA. the event included experts from the California Building Industry Association, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, RealtyTrac, The Appraisal Institute and the National Auctioneers Association.

The RISMEDIA article quotes Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics regarding increases in durable goods orders, exports and auto sales as saying "You look at the numbers and everything points to the fact that we not only have bottomed, but things seem to be improving. When you think about the problems we’ve been through and what government has done, in many ways, they have, in fact, stabilized the economy. But you know what? They haven’t actually solved the underlying problems in the economy. The second half of 2010 will be very weak. 2011 will be very grim." According to the article, Thornberg cited real estate as a case in point. The article states that while home sales are up in some areas of the country, 6-7% of residential mortgages across the US are now 60 to 90 days delinquent. According to the aritcle, in California 250,000 mortgages are 60 to 90 days late. Thornberg believed that more economic trouble is coming soon due to rising unemployment and additional waves of foreclosures. If you remember my past blog posts I have been saying this for months (i.s. the coming foreclosures of Option ARM's).

The article noted the following thoughts and comments of the forum panelists:

• All of the panelists agreed that the economy will turn the corner in 2-3 years, but several panelists thought that things would get worse before improving.
• John Young, vice president of the California Building Industry Association, noted that new housing construction starts are at their lowest levels since the early 1950s and that new home sales are being hurt by appraisals coming in lower than the contract sale prices.
• Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, a leading online marketplaces for foreclosures, noted the nation has had 43 consecutive months of foreclosures.  He said "We’re dealing with foreclosure activity that is six times what it would be in a normal market."  He also said that the legal and legislative efforts aimed at helping consumers modify the terms of their loans “merely delay the inevitable" given that modified loan terms will not help people who lose their jobs.  Sharga said he sees another big wave of foreclosures hitting the market next year as a result of rising unemployment rates, which are expected to peak during the first quarter of 2010, and the resetting of adjustable rate mortgages to higher rates.  Sharga also said that the real estate market is being hurt by a "shadow inventory" of 400,000 to 500,000 homes, which have been taken foreclosed and taken back by lenders, but have not been put back on the market for resale.  I have been saying that the number of REO's far exceeds the number being offered for sale for a while now.  When the Option ARM's start to reset this is going to break the proverbial flood gates wide open.

Of course there was the normal refrain of from a former president of the National Association of REALTORS who wants Congress to expand the home purchase tax credit to $15,000 for all home buyers.  Per my previous blog posts I think this is a bad idea because it will artificially inflate home prices resulting in more bubble bursting when the tax credits are finally stopped.

The forum organizer, Bruce Norris, recommended that Congress take the following actions to help the real estate market:

1. "Increase the number of loans made available to well capitalized investors: Expand Fannie and Freddie loan programs from a maximum of 10 loans per investor to an unlimited number of loans for qualified investors."
2. "Make the 203K FHA loan program available to investors: A 203K loan allows a property needing work to be purchased “as is,” but included in the loan amount is money for repairs. The loan funds both the purchase and rehab of the property. Investors need this loan now, but this loan is currently only available to owner occupants. FHA previously made this loan available to investors, but stopped the practice in 1996 when HUD ran out of lender owned, fixer uppers. Banks could solve the vacant house problem by giving investors back the 203K loan program."
3. "Eliminate the 90-day waiting period before a repaired property can be sold to a buyer using an FHA loan: Investors who purchase fixer uppers can often completely repair the property in a matter of weeks. But the current law prohibits investors from reselling the property within 90 days. The assumption is that fraud must be taking place if a property is resold within 90 days. It’s ridiculous to assume that every investor who purchases a property, improves and resells it is committing fraud. All this policy does is increase investors’ costs of purchasing and rehabbing vacant homes.
4. Allow loans to be taken over by credit-qualified new buyers with no down payment. Through this process, which was successfully used in the 1980s, new buyers simply step in and take over the loan payments. The only stipulation is that the loan has to be made current at the close of escrow. The U.S. currently has about one million owners who will not be capable of keeping their homes without a huge discount on the principle balance. Many of these properties have fixed rates at very favorable rates. Allowing willing and capable buyers to come in and take over these loans would help contain the spread of foreclosures across the country.

I agree with Mr. Norris' first 3 points, but I fail to see how allowing delinquent loans to be "taken over by credit-qualified new buyers with no down payment" will help the market when the real problem is that the loan balances exceed property values.

Thornberg, thought that it is "not realistic to assume that our nation’s economic problems will be solved by increased regulation or by presidential action. The economy simply needs some time to heal itself.  I have tremendous faith in the U.S. economy rebounding again in the future.  When we come out of this in two or three years, we’re going to have cheap housing and a weak dollar, which will be good for exports."

I agree with Mr. Thornberg in that cheap housing is good for the economy. The problem is that the Obama Administration is doing so much to artificially prop up housing values.  Why would they do this?  The answer is that the Obama Administration and their Democrat friends are bailing out their Wall Street and banking buddies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG and Goldman Sachs.  Don't believe me?  Go find out who the largest campaign contribution recipients from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG (hint: Barney Frank, Christopher Dodd and Barack Hussein Obama).

In my market in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford Couny TN in particular) I believe that the effect of all this will be worse than average due to higher than average unemployment rates and foreclosures.  Housing prices in Middle Tennessee will continue to fall well into 2012.

National Association of REALTORS: Existing-Home Sales Decline in August 2009

According to this National Association of REALTORS (NAR) news release, Existing-Home Sales Ease Following Four Monthly Gains, sales of existing homes (includes single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops) declined by 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August 2009 from a pace of 5.24 million in July 2009. According to NAR, this is 3.4% above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. Over the previous four month span from April 2009 through July 2009, sales had risen a total of 15.2%.

The news release states that according to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, the first time home buyer tax credit is working. The release quotes Yun as saying "Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions. Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can’t take a housing rebound for granted."

The news release goes on to state that a NAR practitioner survey shows that for August 2009, first-time buyers accounted for 30% of home sales and that distressed homes accounted for 31% of home sales. Both of these figures were unchanged from July 2009.

The release goes on to quote Yun as saying "The recent trend shows broad improvement in most of the country, but with an expected rise in foreclosures over the next 12 months we need to maintain a healthy level of ready buyers to absorb the inventory. An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market. Now that the market is showing some momentum, we have an opportunity to achieve a more rapid and broader stabilization in home prices. Extending and expanding the tax credit also would help to keep other families from becoming upside down in their mortgages or risk foreclosure. When home prices show sustained gains, credit will become more widely available to other sectors because Wall Street will be able to price risks confidently. Stable home values will also allow more families to purchase consumer products and provide a strong boost for the broader economy."

According to the news release, in the Southern US, existing-home sales were down 3.1% to an annual pace of 1.89 million in August, but are 1.6% above August 2008. The median price in the South was $157,400, which is 11.0% lower than the same period in 2008.

While this seems fine and dandy, I have a problems with the "spin" on these statistics.

• Number of Home Sales - Other than for REALTORS and other folks who generate income when homes sell, and as a result, need to turn units, this figure is just not that important unless it reaches extreme levels as it says little about the overall health of the housing market.  For example, if homes were worth $1 there would be a lot of sales, but the market would be devastated.
• Home Prices - The sale prices of homes declined by 10%+ in every region of the US.  This is further evidence that the market has not hit bottom yet.
• Tax Credit - I find Yun's comments including "An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market." to be laughable.  First, qualified buyers do not need a government subsidy to "enter the market" buy a home. What they need are AFFORDABLE HOMES, which the market is giving us as only a free market can!  We do not need an artificial government subsidy that will temporarily inflate home prices only to see those prices fall when the subsidy is discontinued. Yun says he want to have home prices "show sustained gains" so that "credit will become more widely available." Given that this whole financial mess was caused by credit being too widely available it is utterly foolish to try to expand credit further.  All we need to save the economy is to have homes reach prices that are sustainable based on people's incomes, not debt.

Nashville Business Journal: Greater Nashville unemployment hits 9.8%

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, Greater Nashville unemployment hits 9.8%, the Nashville Tennessee Metropolitan Unemployment Rate reached 9.8% in August 2009, which is up from 9.6% in July 2009. The article noted the following unemployment statistics for the following counties in the greater Nashville TN area:

• Davidson County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate increased to 9.6% in August 2009, which is up from 9.2% in July 2009.
• Williamson County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% in August 2009, which is down from 8.3% in July 2009.
• Rutherford County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate decreased to 10.1% in August 2009, which is down from 10.2% in July 2009.
• Wilson County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate increased to 9.5% in August 2009, which is up from 9.1% in July 2009.
• Sumner County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate increased to 10.3% in August 2009, which is up from 9.9% in July 2009.

The article goes on to state that according to the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, across Tennessee unemployment increased in 47 counties, decreased in 42 counties and stayed the same in 6 counties.  Overall, the August 2009 unemployment rate in Tennessee was 10.8%, which is over a full percentage point higher than the US national unemployment rate at 9.7%.

Given that most of the counties in the greater Nashville Tennessee metropolitan area have unemployment rates of over 9%, with Rutherford County TN and Sumner County TN posting unemployment rates over 10%, there is no way that housing prices will increase.  Also, there will continue to be high rates of foreclosures and short sales in Middle Tennessee.

Effects of a Loan Modification, Short Sale, Foreclosure, Bankruptcy and Walking Away/Doing Nothing on Credit Scores

Effects of a Loan Modification, Short Sale, Foreclosure, Bankruptcy and Walking Away/Doing Nothing on Your Credit Score

There seems to be a lot of conflicting information out there regarding the negative effects of a Loan Modification, Short Sale, Foreclosure, Bankruptcy and Walking Away/Doing Nothing on a person's credit score. I would like to try to clear some of that confusion up.

According to this Los Angeles Times article, Mortgage problems are walloping Americans' credit scores, loan modifications, short sales, foreclosures, bankruptcies and walking away/doing nothing effect your credit score differently. Below is a brief summary of the different options.

• Loan Modification Type 1 - This Loan Modification type rolls late payments and penalties into the principal debt owed. According to the LA Times article, this type of loan modification may modestly increase your credit score.
• Loan Modification Type 2 - This Loan Modification type is a refinancing of underwater (i.e. negative equity) mortgage(s). This is what is offered under the Obama administration's Making Home Affordable Program through government controlled Fannie and Freddie Mac. According to the LA Times article, this type of Loan Modification "may have little or no negative effect on scores, even though the homeowners might have been tottering on the edge of serious delinquency before refinancing."
• Short Sale - A short sale is a sale of a property where the net sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off the mortgage balance(s) and there is no party willing or able to make up the shortage. According to the LA Times article, a short sale may lower your credit score by 120-130 points. I have heard from other people that a short sale lowers a person's credit score by 80-100 points. For sake of simplicity, let's say that a short sale will drop your credit score by about 100 points on average (This does not include the negative effects of any missed mortgage payments. You do not need to miss any mortgage payments in order to successfully complete a short sale). While this seems bad (it certainly is not good), it is much better than foreclosure, or doing nothing. In fact, according Question 7, "If a borrower has completed a short sale and was never delinquent on that mortgage and is now attempting to purchase a new primary residence, will Fannie Mae purchase the loan?", in this this Fannie Mae publication, Announcement 08-16: Bankruptcy, Foreclosure, and Conversion of Principal Residence Policy Changes; and Revised Property Value Representation and Warranty Requirements, "If the borrower is purchasing a new property and the previous mortgage history complies with our excessive prior mortgage delinquency policy and does not have one or more 60-, 90-, 120-, or 150-day delinquencies reported within the 12 months prior to the credit report date, the loan is eligible for delivery to Fannie Mae, provided the lender or servicer who completed the short sale has not entered into any agreement that obligates the borrower to repay any amounts associated with the short sale, including a deficiency judgment." In other words, you can short sell your existing home and immediately buy another home as long you did not have a 60 day or more delinquency and your short sale lender did not require you to pay the shortage (normal loan underwriting criteria applies). This publication clarifies the previous Fannie Mae publication, Announcement 08-16.
• Foreclosure - Homeowners that allow their home to go to full foreclosure (i.e. be auctioned off by the lender and/or become a bank owned property) should expect their credit scores to decline by 140 to 150 points plus negative marks on their credit bureau files for as long as seven years. Having a foreclosure on your credit report will also make it much more difficult to buy a home. Fannie Mae requires foreclosed home buyers to wait at least 5 years before buying another home and even then Fannie Mae will require larger down payments. Freddie Mac generally requires a waiting period of 7 years. The FHA currently has a waiting period of 3 years, but is expected to increase that waiting requirement.
• Bankruptcy - The LA Times article states "People who file for bankruptcy protection covering all their debts (mortgage, credit cards, auto loans, etc.) will get hit with an average 355- to 365-point drop in their scores. Bankruptcies remain on borrowers' credit bureau files for 10 years." Having a bankruptcy on your credit report will make it very difficult to buy another home. Fannie Mae requires that people who file a non-Chapter 13 bankruptcy wait a minimum of 4 years from dismissal or discharge before obtaining a new home loan. For Chapter 13 bankruptcy, the waiting requirement is 2 years from discharge and 4 years from dismissal.
• Walking Away/Doing Nothing - according to the LA Times article the "strategic default" has become common in large foreclosure laden markets such as California (and Florida, Nevada and Arizona). Homeowners who choose this option should expect the same consequences as a Foreclosure (described above).

The LA Times article goes on to state that Americans overall credit scores have declined significantly over the last couple of years. The article refers to the Vantage credit score, the main competitor to the well known FICO credit score, which "rates borrowers on a scale range of 501 (subprime, the highest risk) to 990 (super-prime, the lowest risk). Unlike Fair Isaac Corp.'s FICO scoring system, whose scores can vary by 50 to 100 points based on which bureau supplied the underlying credit data, Vantage scores are about the same for each consumer."

Regarding the negative effects of this financial mess on people's credit scores, the article states "For example, roughly 36.6 million of the 213 million consumers tracked by the three national credit bureaus in the first quarter of 2008 had Vantage scores above 900 -- the super-prime credit rung. That select group represented 17.2% of the country's consumers.But by the end of the second quarter of this year, just 15.4% -- 33.3 million out of 216.9 million individuals' files -- were left among the elite. By credit industry standards, that's huge. More Americans' scores are slipping into the worst credit category as well. In the third quarter of 2006, 34.4 million consumers were in the lowest segment -- 16.6% of 206.9 million individuals. But by the second quarter of this year, 18.3% of all files were in that category -- 39.8 million consumers out of 216.9 million. Most of these changes -- fewer people with excellent credit, more people in the lowest brackets -- have been caused by late payments on home mortgages, serious delinquencies, short sales and foreclosures, according to VantageScore researchers."

The article does offer a glimmer of good news - the same information I have been saying for months. That is "the bottom-line good news about scores is that homeowners facing financial stress can experience minimal dings to their credit if they contact their loan servicer or lender early in the game -- when they first discover that they may have trouble making their monthly payments -- and take the first steps toward a loan modification or refinancing." In other words, doing nothing is the worst thing you can do. The article cautions financially distressed homeowners not to "wait and fall several payments behind before seeking a modification". The article quotes Barrett Burns, a former lender and now chief executive of VantageScore, as saying "Start that conversation early. You can lose 240 points on your score" and damage your ability to obtain credit for years.

Based on the above, if you are a home owner who is experiencing difficult financial times and cannot afford to pay your mortgage, you should try to get a loan modification first. If a loan modification is not approved, or you cannot pay your mortgage even after a loan modification, then a short sale is your next best option.

Due to the declines in people's credit scores as described above, the large number of homeowners in financial distress (due to a loss of income, unemployment, etc.), the large number of homeowners underwater (see my previous blog post, SCARY STUFF: About half of U.S. mortgages seen underwater by 2011), the relative attractiveness of short sales and the large numbers of homeowners who do nothing/walk away (this is a terrible decision) there will be a lot of short sales and foreclosures over the next several years.

If you are a homeowner who cannot pay your mortgage (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, etc.), or your home is already in foreclosure, or you owe more than your home is worth you should contact a real estate and/or bankruptcy attorney to discuss your legal options. You should also contact your mortgage company to inquire about a loan modification. If you a homeowner in Middle Tennessee and would like help and assistance with a loan modification please contact me for free no obligation assistance. If a loan modification will not work for you, or is not granted by your mortgage company, I can help you with a short sale of your property. I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I serve real estate owners, homeowners and investment property owners in Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN. If you do need to short sell your home (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home), or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

Moody's Puts Us in a Bad Mood: House Prices Won’t Return to Peak Until 2020

According to this HousingWire.com article, House Prices Won’t Return to Peak Until 2020: Moody’s Analyst, a Moody’s Economy.com report predicts that "at least another decade will pass before housing prices return to peak 2006 levels." For those of you who have been following my blog you already know that I have been saying this for months now. In fact I have been saying that it will be at least 10 years before housing prices return to their 2005-2006 peak levels. The article quotes the Moody's report, written by Moody's Analyst Celia Chen, as stating "The correction will be not only deep but also lengthy. "The national price level will not regain its 2006 high until 2020, a peak-to-peak housing cycle of 14 years."

Despite the 2020 projection being on the low end of my estimate (i.e. AT LEAST 10 years), this HousingWire.com article actually confirms what I have been saying since according to the HousingWire.com article, "the projection seems conservative in light of historic data."  The article states that the Moody's analyst wrote that after the Great Depression, housing prices took nearly 20 years to return to their previous peak. the report also shows that in Japan 15 years passed since their residential market lost half of its value and there are still no signs of a recovery.

The HousingWire.com further quotes the Moody's report as saying "housing prices will regain normalized rates of appreciation during the first five years of the recovery. But the decline in prices and the subsequent recovery vary by region to region. In some states, prices will decline 6% or less and recovery will come before 2014. Other areas that have experienced declines of more than 46% won’t get back to 2006 prices until 2023."

My prediction for Middle Tennessee is that the Middle TN housing market will not recover peak home values until 2023-2025.  This is due to the following characteristics of the Middle Tennessee housing market:

• The Middle TN housing market peaked much later than most areas of the country with a peak of late 2007/early 2008 instead of early to late 2006.
• Extreme overbuilding during that peak especially in the higher price ranges.  This supply balance will continue for many years since for some reason people are still building here.
• Tennessee has historically high rates of personal bankruptcy which will cause higher than average foreclosure and short sale rates.
• Tennessee has higher than average unemployment rates, which will also cause higher than average foreclosure and short sale rates.