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Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Commercial Defaults Coming Fast and Furious
In short, the real estate market is still in for a world of hurt in formerly fast growth areas such as CA, NV, AZ and FL. Rising commercial loan defaults will lead to large numbers of short sales and foreclosures. The coming ARM resets will cause even more problems. Together, they will wreak more havoc on the real estate markets across the US over the next 12-24 months. Only after these issues play out will we hit a true real estate bottom.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Great Blog Post: The Ridiculous Loan Modification Solution
- The home owners were shaky from the beginning and so they are not the most financially responsible people to start with.
- Their homes are worth far less than the their mortgage balances. Eventually these people realize that they will never "get even" and just give up by letting the go into foreclosure.
The result of all of this is that short sales are rely best solution for the lenders and the homeowners since it is statistically proven that loan modifications will not work. Regardless of what the all knowing Obama says, keeping people in their homes is not the answer to our real estate crisis. Letting the market hit bottom as soon as possible is.
98 of the Top 100 Metropolitan Areas Lost Jobs Over the Period of June 2008 to June 2009
Monday, August 3, 2009
Mortgage Servicers Have Incentives Not to Modify Loans, Not to Approve Short Sales and Not to Foreclose (At Least for Quite a While)
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Delinquencies on home-equity loans hit record
Per my previous posts, it is "only going to get worse". If you cannot afford your home loan payments (mortgage(s) and/or home equity loan(s)), your best option is to request a loan modification in order get your monthly payments reduced. If that does not work and/or your home is worth less than the debt than a short sale is your next best solution. Simply defaulting is not a good answer. If you need assistance in stopping foreclosure proceedings feel free to contact HaltingForeclosures.com.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Lenders More Open to Short Sales
All this means that short sales will become more common. However, this is not really new news since they were going to increase anyway due to the declining real estate values and worsening unemployment, which will increase the number of mortgage delinquencies.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
More Evidence Banks are Holding Back Foreclosures
Too Many Homeowers Have No Savings
In my opinion this is going to cause more foreclosures and short sales, particularly in areas where the median home prices are still too high relative to the median incomes (think FL, CA, NV and AR). The foreclosure and short sale problems will only get worse as the economy weakens and unemployment increases.
Given that Middle Tennessee (in particular Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN and La Vergne TN in Rutherford County) has higher than average foreclosures and short sales I think it is reasonable to conclude that people here also have less than required savings. This financial stress will continue to hurt the Middle TN housing market.
When "Good News" Is Really Bad News
I will tell you right now that this is the terrible news. Overbuilding spurred by easy to get loans was a major contributor to the current real estate mess. We do not need more new homes being built, especially if they are fuled by artifically low rates, which will eventually increase significantly, and tax credits. Only rookie buyers or truly marginal buyers would make the decision to buy a home based on a measy $8,000 to $15,000 in tax credits, especially given the fact that taxes are going to increase in order to pay for the "stimulus plan". Therefore, these buyers will have less money than they think after their tax credit is factored in. I predict that these buyers will have a high foreclosure rate and the overall foreclosure rate will contnue to be high. All of this will continue to depress prices in the very areas that were most affected by the real estate decline.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Obama Administration Expands Housing "Rescue Plan"
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Becoming Large Landlords
Foreclosures Reach New High in April 2009
Birmingham Auction Ended Abruptly After Too Many "Low Bids"
My opinion is that these people are fools. There is no other market for these condos. $935,000 for a condo in Birmingham? Sorry, it makes no sense. That market is long gone and never coming back. It was a sham built upon a mountain of debt that is no longer available. The condo project owners should liquidate for whatever they can get as it is only going to get worse.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Don't Believe the "Good News Bulls"
Commercial Real Estate Loan Defaults Will Sink Big Banks
Duplicating Disaster: A Lesson Not Learned
Monday, May 4, 2009
Foreclosures Increase as Banks Start to End Voluntary Foreclosure Abatements
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Government Meddling and Banks' Incompetence Will Cause More Home Price Declines
Prices Still Need to Decline to Make Homes Affordable Again
Friday, April 17, 2009
Tennessee Foreclosures Filings Increase Nearly 20% in March 2009
According to this article in the Memphis Busines Journal, RealtyTrac: Tennessee foreclosures up in March but trending down in 1Q, foreclosures increased in March 2009 compared to February 2009 by 19.7% and by 13.1% when March 2009 was compared to March 2008. According to the article, the overall foreclosures in the 1st Quarter of 2009 are 16.3% lower than the 1st Quarter of 2008. Unfortunately, the writer of the article used an article of the title that misrepresents the facts. The sad truth is that in order for foreclosures in the first quarter of 2009 relative to 2008 and still have foreclosures soar in March 2009 by 19.7% it means that in January 2009 foreclosures dropped substantially, but that drop was followed by huge increases. It is normal for foreclosures to be low in January so this is not abnormal. However, a near 20% increase for March is not good. According to the article, Tennessee has one foreclosure filing per 263 households. That ranks 17th nationally. For comparison purposes, Pennsylvania (my home state) has only one foreclosure per 464 households. This means Tennessee’s foreclosure rate is 76% higher than Pennsylvania’s rate. Not good. Contrary to whatever nonsense and spin is out there in the media foreclosures are going to increase for the next several months, if not longer due to general economic problems (think unemployment) and continuing financial problems (think bank failures).