Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Credit Scores Getting Worse: Another Reason The Housing Market Will Decline Further and Then Stay Down

Credit Scores Getting Worse: Another Reason The Housing Market Will Decline Further and Then Stay Down

According to this article, Analysis: One-Third of Americans Highly Unlikely to Qualify for a Mortgage Today, 29.3% of Americans has a credit score under 620. This means that almost 1 in 3 Americans cannot qualify for a mortgage loan right now. This is yet another reason why the housing market will decline further: too many potential buyers are eliminated from the buyer pool due to poor credit. By the time this housing market decline is over the percentage of Americans with poor credit will likely increase to as much as 35% to 40%. In addition to that, nearly 50% of Americans will owe more than their home is worth (see SCARY STUFF: About half of U.S. mortgages seen underwater by 2011) and there is just no way buyers can come back into the market in a big way absent a substantial decline in home prices, which would allow new buyers into the market. Therefore, even when this housing market decline hits a bottom there will be no driver to push home prices back up resulting in more of a "thud and muddle" rather than a "V" recovery (also see: The Truth About Home Prices). As a result of this there are going to be a high level of foreclosures, short sales and other distress sales for the next several years.

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