Friday, December 18, 2009

Housing Market Not Rebounding

Housing Market Not Rebounding

According to this USA Today article, Can home market bounce back without more help?, high foreclosures, high unemployment and short-term government housing stimulus programs (i.e. expanded FHA, expanded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the $1.25 trillion mortgage securities buying program, the home buyer tax credit, etc.) will continue to challenge the housing market and may not be enough to turn housing prices around in the near future. While the article quotes experts on both sides of the housing market rebounding/not rebounding issue, it seems to me that those saying that the housing market is rebounding are only quoting housing market sales figures, sales prices, inventory, etc. without considering the forces behind those figures. For example, if the first home buyer tax credits are spurring 30% of all home sales (as stated in the article), then you cannot use the home sales, home prices and inventory figures as proof the housing market is rebounding since the tax credit is responsible for a significant portion of the sales activity. Given that this tax credit goes away on 4/30/2010, it is not a long term demand driver. Also, the government's $1.25 trillion mortgage securities buying program will end in April 2010 so that is another artificial stimulus that will disappear with the result of higher interest rates and lower demand. Therefore, in my opinion, this "housing market rebound" is a mirage and will disappear once these artificial stimulus actions end. See my post Our Phony Real Estate Market for more information.

Below are some interesting quotes from the real estate experts mentioned in the article:
  • Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) - "Right now, we're not in a sustaining recovery. We're on the cusp of a self-sufficient recovery, but we're not there yet." Well, at least Lawrence got some truth into that statement even though he ended it with Realtor spin.
  • Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's - "Foreclosures will be high for a long time and property values won't increase. Many (homeowners) are underwater and are at high risk of defaulting. There are a lot of foreclosed properties in the pipeline that will limit the market and depress prices."
In short, there are no positive sustainable demand forces in the housing market. The tax credits will go away and the government mortgage market propping will end resulting in higher interest rates. The only sustainable housing market forces are high foreclosures, high unemployment and too much debt. All these forces mean more problems ahead for the housing market.

If you are a Middle TN homeowner, property owner, condo owner, real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay your mortgage payments (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, adverse business conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), know that you will not be able to pay your mortgage, have defaulted on your mortgage, are already in foreclosure, or owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification and a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (homeowners, property owners, condo owners, owners of high end homes and properties (estate homes, luxury homes and executive homes), real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Robertson County TN, Maury County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Spring Hill TN, Gallatin TN, Springfield TN and Mt. Juliet TN).  If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

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