According to this RealtyTrac press release,
U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 7 PERCENT IN JULY, in July 2009 US foreclosures increased by 32% from July 2008 and by 7% from June 2009. According to the press release, July is the 3rd time in the last 5 months that a new record has been set for foreclosure activity. Again, the 4 hardest hit states were Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida. However, there were a many other notable problem areas with Utah at #5, Idaho at #6, Georgia at #7, Illinois at #8, and Colorado at #9. Tennessee ranked 22nd (worse than average), while Pennsylvania, a more stable area, ranked 34th (better than average). A complete list of the July 2009 state by state foreclosure rankings are below (courtesy of RealtyTrac):
U.S. Foreclosure Market Data by State – July 2009
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| Properties with Foreclosure Filings |
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Rate Rank | State Name | NOD | LIS | NTS | NFS | REO | Total | 1/every X HU (rate) | %? from Jun 09 | %? from Jul 08 |
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-- | U.S. | 62,939 | 71,565 | 104,830 | 33,557 | 87,258 | 360,149 | 355 | 6.74 | 32.32 |
33 | Alabama | 0 | 0 | 1,630 | 0 | 452 | 2,082 | 1,026 | -23.34 | 141.25* |
24 | Alaska | 3 | 0 | 266 | 0 | 102 | 371 | 761 | 76.67 | 79.23 |
3 | Arizona | 2 | 0 | 14,120 | 0 | 5,572 | 19,694 | 135 | 16.99 | 47.52 |
21 | Arkansas | 104 | 0 | 1,319 | 0 | 828 | 2,251 | 572 | 35.03* | 110.77* |
2 | California | 50,917 | 0 | 35,802 | 0 | 21,385 | 108,104 | 123 | 6.99 | 49.55 |
9 | Colorado | 5 | 0 | 3,947 | 0 | 1,536 | 5,488 | 388 | -4.12 | 2.08 |
29 | Connecticut | 0 | 1,084 | 0 | 190 | 295 | 1,569 | 917 | 7.84 | -22.10 |
37 | Delaware | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 72 | 298 | 1304 | -12.61 | 125.76 |
| District of Columbia | 267 | 0 | 219 | 0 | 35 | 521 | 546 | 24.94 | -6.80 |
4 | Florida | 0 | 35,227 | 0 | 14,502 | 6,757 | 56,486 | 154 | 6.78 | 23.11 |
7 | Georgia | 1 | 0 | 7,616 | 0 | 3,519 | 11,136 | 356 | -20.59 | 10.68 |
15 | Hawaii | 186 | 0 | 481 | 0 | 323 | 990 | 512 | 40.23 | 332.31 |
6 | Idaho | 1,290 | 0 | 1,051 | 0 | 150 | 2,491 | 253 | 32.43* | 166.13* |
8 | Illinois | 0 | 6,770 | 0 | 4,060 | 3,694 | 14,524 | 361 | 34.53 | 62.92 |
17 | Indiana | 0 | 1,015 | 0 | 1,881 | 2,290 | 5,186 | 536 | -6.86 | 8.43 |
43 | Iowa | 0 | 0 | 227 | 0 | 374 | 601 | 2,212 | 7.32 | 20.68 |
30 | Kansas | 0 | 183 | 0 | 408 | 728 | 1,319 | 925 | 37.68 | 94.83 |
39 | Kentucky | 0 | 405 | 0 | 488 | 341 | 1,234 | 1,545 | 9.30 | 0.65 |
40 | Louisiana | 0 | 6 | 0 | 928 | 183 | 1,117 | 1,664 | -23.07 | 9.83 |
41 | Maine | 0 | 138 | 0 | 212 | 57 | 407 | 1,712 | 39.38 | 59.61 |
11 | Maryland | 0 | 3,521 | 0 | 633 | 998 | 5,152 | 450 | 66.19 | 65.98 |
16 | Massachusetts | 0 | 3,548 | 0 | 1,049 | 517 | 5,114 | 532 | 58.77 | 43.09 |
19 | Michigan | 1 | 0 | 2,695 | 0 | 5,561 | 8,257 | 548 | -39.32 | -28.76 |
20 | Minnesota | 12 | 0 | 2,266 | 0 | 1,847 | 4,125 | 559 | 23.80 | 146.86 |
45 | Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 354 | 0 | 124 | 478 | 2,625 | -36.69 | 151.58* |
27 | Missouri | 5 | 0 | 1,729 | 0 | 1,441 | 3,175 | 834 | 2.02 | -9.60† |
47 | Montana | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 88 | 90 | 4,839 | 45.16 | -36.62 |
46 | Nebraska | 0 | 164 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 195 | 4,004 | 30.87 | -70.45 |
1 | Nevada | 7,139 | 0 | 7,833 | 0 | 4,563 | 19,535 | 56 | 4.11 | 94.18 |
31 | New Hampshire | 0 | 0 | 611 | 0 | 12 | 623 | 954 | 42.24 | -31.01 |
18 | New Jersey | 0 | 4,210 | 0 | 1,505 | 752 | 6,467 | 541 | 49.25 | 39.92 |
32 | New Mexico | 0 | 479 | 0 | 270 | 128 | 877 | 983 | 23.52 | 61.21* |
38 | New York | 0 | 4,613 | 0 | 871 | 470 | 5,954 | 1,334 | 22.76 | -3.45 |
36 | North Carolina | 1,120 | 0 | 756 | 0 | 1,552 | 3,428 | 1,203 | 7.97 | -20.33 |
48 | North Dakota | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 23 | 50 | 6,211 | 56.25 | -23.08 |
12 | Ohio | 0 | 5,062 | 0 | 3,032 | 2,927 | 11,021 | 460 | -2.05 | -18.10 |
35 | Oklahoma | 595 | 0 | 522 | 0 | 420 | 1,537 | 1,056 | 18.69 | -11.05 |
10 | Oregon | 29 | 0 | 2,463 | 0 | 1,113 | 3,605 | 446 | 15.80 | 84.40 |
34 | Pennsylvania | 0 | 1,869 | 0 | 1,805 | 1,642 | 5,316 | 1,030 | 7.59 | 27.36* |
28 | Rhode Island | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 488 | 505 | 893 | -44.63 | 2.23 |
26 | South Carolina | 0 | 1,209 | 0 | 484 | 735 | 2,428 | 833 | 44.01 | 82.15* |
42 | South Dakota | 0 | 60 | 0 | 56 | 48 | 164 | 2,178 | 45.13 | 446.67* |
22 | Tennessee | 0 | 0 | 2,263 | 0 | 2,309 | 4,572 | 596 | -2.20 | 0.15†† |
25 | Texas | 24 | 0 | 7,194 | 0 | 4,859 | 12,077 | 781 | 0.45 | 16.64 |
5 | Utah | 1,234 | 0 | 1,728 | 0 | 732 | 3,694 | 250 | 6.42 | 93.30 |
50 | Vermont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 28,312 | 0.00 | 120.00 |
14 | Virginia | 5 | 0 | 3,927 | 0 | 2,474 | 6,406 | 511 | 23.48 | 11.51† |
13 | Washington | 0 | 0 | 3,632 | 0 | 1,738 | 5,370 | 511 | 14.79 | 94.42* |
49 | West Virginia | 0 | 0 | 119 | 0 | 20 | 139 | 6,350 | 21.93 | 265.79 |
23 | Wisconsin | 0 | 2,001 | 0 | 926 | 890 | 3,817 | 671 | 8.10 | 86.74* |
44 | Wyoming | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 57 | 98 | 2,473 | 16.67 | -26.32 |
* Actual increase may not be as high due to data collection changes or improvements
† Collection of some records previously classified as NOD in this state was discontinued starting in January 2009
† Collection of some records previously classified as NOD in this state was discontinued starting in September 2008
U.S. Foreclosure Rates Heat Map – July 2009
A US Foreclosure Rates Heat Map for July 2009 is below (courtesy of RealtyTrac). As you can see, many counties in Tennessee experienced high rates of foreclosure activity in July 2009. Although the map is small (and difficult to tell for sure), it appears that some of the hardest hit counties are Davidson, Williamson and Rutherford. Rutherford County TN appears to have one of the highest foreclosure rates in the entire the state of Tennessee.
After the RealtyTrac press release was issued, a Bloomberg article,
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Set Third Record-High in Five Months, obtained additional information from the following real estate sources and experts.
- National Association of REALTORS (NAR) - The median price of an existing single-family house dropped 15.6 percent to $174,100 in the second quarter of 2009, the most in records dating to 1979.
- Zillow - Almost one-quarter of U.S. mortgage holders are now underwater (i.e. they owe more in mortgage debt than their homes are worth).
- Stuart Gabriel (director of the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate in Los Angeles) - “There are a slew of factors showing fundamental weakness on the demand side: tighter underwriting, job loss, investors who’ve been badly burned. We have not seen the bottom of the housing market.”
- Diane Swonk (chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc.) - “We’re in a deep hole. There is a whole new wave of foreclosures tied to the cyclical dynamics of the economy. It has been more profitable to put a home in foreclosure than restructure the loan. The only thing that helps is forgiveness of principal, and there is little willingness to do that.”
The information above from RealtyTrac and the additional information and quotes are all proof that what I said several months ago is true: "The worst is yet to come." The real estate market is still declining and will actually accelerate downward starting in the summer of 2010. The major issues that will continue to harm the real estate market are as follows:
- Continued job losses.
- More and more homeowners underwater.
- Massive government debt which will result in higher interest rates.
There is no way to escape what is coming. All the events that will cause the impending declines have already happened.