Friday, November 19, 2010

Quantitative Easing Explained for Us Plebians

Quantitative Easing Explained for Us Plebians

The video below, Quantitative Easing Explained, is a simple, but very funny and sadly true video that explains the intended and unintended effects of the Fed's latest round of "Quantitative Easing" (QE2). I just had to share it.

In my opinion, this QE2 will result in soaring prices of basic living necessities (food, utilities, medical care, etc.) without causing the intended goal of igniting the economy and inflating housing prices. Since housing sales are now (unlike in the past) extraordinarily dependent on buyers who borrow practically the entire amount of the purchase price via loan programs such as FHA, VA, USDA, THDA and other such loan programs, housing prices are now extremely dependent on mortgage loan interest rates. If the Fed's QE2 does in fact cause significant inflation (many economists believe this will happen), mortgage loan interest rates (remember the 1970's) will also surge with the result that buyers will not be able to afford the high interest monthly payments. Therefore, it is very possible that QE2 will actually cause housing prices to deflate (i.e. decline) further. I think the possible general inflation without corresponding household income inflation will reduce the amount of money homeowners have available after paying for basic necessities. This plus a further housing price decline will create even more foreclosures, short sales and other distress sales over the next several years. See my previous blog post, The Truth About Home Prices) to get an idea of how housing prices compare to historic housing prices.

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