Home Prices Decline Again

Home Prices Decline Again

As I have been predicting for quite some time (see: The Truth About Home Prices), housing prices are declining again in the aftermath of the second ill advised "first time home buyer tax credit" (should be renamed "Fool's Gold Part 2").

According to this article, FHFA Monthly Home Prices: September 2010, home prices have now fallen below their levels in September 2009. (The article states: "The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.").



As you can see by the graph above, the home price trend clearly shows that home prices are declining again. As a result of this further (and expected) housing price decline, there are going to be an elevated level of foreclosures, short sales and other distress sales over the next several years. Due to these issues, the overall poor economy, and the fact that home prices are still historically high, housing will not begin recovering for at least 4-5 years and even then price gains will be very modest.

Nashville and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance for Homeowners and Property Owners in Financial Distress. If you are a Nashville Tennessee, Franklin Tennessee, Brentwood Tennessee, Nolensville Tennessee, Spring Hill Tennessee, Murfreesboro Tennessee, Smyrna Tennessee, La Vergne Tennessee, or Middle Tennessee homeowner, property owner, condo owner, real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay your mortgage payments (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, adverse business conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), know that you will not be able to pay your mortgage, have defaulted on your mortgage, are already in foreclosure, or owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification and a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home). I am a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR, Expert and Real Estate Investor. I primarily help sellers (homeowners, property owners, condo owners, owners of high end homes and properties (estate homes, luxury homes and executive homes), real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Robertson County TN, Maury County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Spring Hill TN, Gallatin TN, Springfield TN and Mt. Juliet TN). If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR, Real Estate Expert and Real Estate Investor.

Housing Prices Declining Again

Housing Prices Declining Again

According to this Real Estate Economy Watch article, Fear Seen Driving Prices Lower than Last 20 Years, the housing markets in most US cities "will see prices fall below the lowest levels of the last 20 years" according to the House Price Forecast from University Financial Associates (UFA) in Ann Arbor Michigan.

The article quotes Dennis Capozza, the Dykema Professor of Business Administration in the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, and a founding principal of UFA, as saying the "Detroit metro was the canary in the coal mine this cycle, with falling house prices arriving earlier than in other metros. Other metros that have already or will soon converge to pre-bubble real prices include Las Vegas, Phoenix, the inland California metros and many south Florida metros."

Overall, the UFA's forecast "would take the national median price of a home in most markets below $101,000, the national median in 1990, according to the Census Bureau." This prediction comes after other recent data which shows that housing prices are headed downward again. This will result in more short sales and foreclosures as underwater homeowners and real estate investors walk away from their upside down (i.e. negative equity) homes and properties.

Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance for Real Estate Investors, Home Builders and Developers in Nashville TN and Middle TN. If you are a Nashville Tennessee, Franklin Tennessee, Brentwood Tennessee, Nolensville Tennessee, Spring Hill Tennessee, Murfreesboro Tennessee, Smyrna Tennessee, La Vergne Tennessee, or Middle Tennessee real estate investor, home builder, condo developer or real estate developer who cannot pay the property/project mortgage payments (due to the poor economy, adverse financing conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), have already defaulted on the mortgage, or are already in foreclosure, or owe more than the property/project is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/project). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Springfield TN, Gallatin TN and Mt. Juliet TN). If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

Housing Will Decline In 2010

Housing Will Decline In 2010

According to this CNBC article, Housing Slump May Worsen Next Year, Not Get Better, in 2010 the housing market will get worse, not better. Their premise is that due to the first time home buyer tax credit (and the recent extension and expansion), "Sales of existing homes will peak in the final quarter of 2009, then begin a year-long slide, which is likely to be a sharp one, according to some estimates."

The article quotes Global Insight economist Patrick Newport as saying "Most of it [the tax credit] is simply shifting sales from one period to another. "It doesn’t get rid of the fundamental problem; there's still a glut of houses. At the end of 2010, you’re still going to have that glut." That is why I have been saying that new home construction does not need to slow - it needs to stop completely. According to Newport, single-family home sales will reach an annual rate of 5.88 million units in the 4th quarter of 2009 (vs. 5.30 in the third quarter). In 2010 he predicts that home sales will decline to 5.65 million units in the 1st quarter of 2010 and average around 4.75 million units in the second half of 2010. That indeed is a large decline.

According to the article, even David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), agrees with the sales shifting premise when he said "We expect a little stall in 2010. I agree, you do advance demand, so you steal it for (from?) the future. The economy and the job market didn't pick up as people expected in '09 and as a consequence that is rolling it in 2010." According to the article, NAHB has predicts a homes sales situation similar to that above with single family home sales reaching a peak of 5.60 million units in the 1st quarter 2010 and declining to about 4.50 million units in the 3rd quarter of 2010, for a 2010 home sales average of 5.15 million units.

According to the article, supporters of the tax credit (and the recent extension and $6,500 expansion to repeat home buyers) did believe that the tax credit would prompt some people to purchase a home sooner than they originally intended, thus reducing the future buyer pool, but those lost future purchases would eventually be replaced by another group of home buyers brought into the real estate market by the improving economy and job market. However, now there is doubt that the $6,500 credit for repeat buyers will help the housing market at all due to the original tax credit not being enough to help new home sales.

The article quotes Andrew Jakobovics, associate director for housing and economics at the Center for American Progress, as saying "I don’t know if the expansion is really going to get anyone else into the market, if you think about what the transaction costs (are). The people who are going to take advantage of it [the tax credit] were going to move anyway. A lot of the new households will be renters or stay renters." I agree in that the marginal effect of the tax credit extension/expansion will be much smaller than NAHB and NAR want. The article states "Most economists see the jobless rate—now 10.3 percent—peaking around 11 percent sometime in early to mid 2010 and then creeping down to around 10 percent by the end of the year. That's too high to make much of a dent in the current glut. Inventory levels are now at an 8-9-month supply--Down from the 10-11-month levels of early 2009, but still above the 6-7-month goal. Another casualty of the job market is household creation, which has meant a steady stream of buyers in the past, helping keep inventories at a healthy level. In 2008, for the first time in years, household creation fell—and sharply, too. At the same time, the number of young adults living at home and average marriage ages increased. More recently, there has been a flattening." As a result the less than desired tax credit effects, continuing high unemployment, and declining and/or flattening of household formation, the housing market will still be in poor shape near the end of 2010. Add in the expiration of the tax credit, the coming end of the government mortgage buying programs and the failing FHA (due to record defaults) - see my blog posts: Housing Faces Upcoming Challenges and Our Phony Real Estate Market - the housing market could be substantially worse in 2010. In fact, short sales and foreclosures will likely increase in 2010 and the result will continued downward pressure on housing prices.

As always, the article mentions that Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief ecomonist, as being bullish on real estate with a prediction that home prices will increase by 4% in 2010. As a homeowner I would like to believe this, but it just defies common sense.

If you are a Middle TN homeowner, property owner, real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay your mortgage payments (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, adverse business conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), know that you will not be able to pay your mortgage, have defaulted on your mortgage, are already in foreclosure, or owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification and a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (homeowners, property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in and around Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN).  If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

Experts: More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Economy

According to this RISMEDIA article, More Rough Times Ahead for U.S. Economy, despite Recent Improvements, several prominent experts in real estate and the economy who attended a recent forum at the Nixon Presidential Library said that despite recent signs of improvement more rough times are ahead for the U.S. economy. The event was organized and moderated by real estate analyst and investor Bruce Norris of The Norris Group in Riverside CA. the event included experts from the California Building Industry Association, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, RealtyTrac, The Appraisal Institute and the National Auctioneers Association.

The RISMEDIA article quotes Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics regarding increases in durable goods orders, exports and auto sales as saying "You look at the numbers and everything points to the fact that we not only have bottomed, but things seem to be improving. When you think about the problems we’ve been through and what government has done, in many ways, they have, in fact, stabilized the economy. But you know what? They haven’t actually solved the underlying problems in the economy. The second half of 2010 will be very weak. 2011 will be very grim." According to the article, Thornberg cited real estate as a case in point. The article states that while home sales are up in some areas of the country, 6-7% of residential mortgages across the US are now 60 to 90 days delinquent. According to the aritcle, in California 250,000 mortgages are 60 to 90 days late. Thornberg believed that more economic trouble is coming soon due to rising unemployment and additional waves of foreclosures. If you remember my past blog posts I have been saying this for months (i.s. the coming foreclosures of Option ARM's).

The article noted the following thoughts and comments of the forum panelists:

• All of the panelists agreed that the economy will turn the corner in 2-3 years, but several panelists thought that things would get worse before improving.
• John Young, vice president of the California Building Industry Association, noted that new housing construction starts are at their lowest levels since the early 1950s and that new home sales are being hurt by appraisals coming in lower than the contract sale prices.
• Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, a leading online marketplaces for foreclosures, noted the nation has had 43 consecutive months of foreclosures.  He said "We’re dealing with foreclosure activity that is six times what it would be in a normal market."  He also said that the legal and legislative efforts aimed at helping consumers modify the terms of their loans “merely delay the inevitable" given that modified loan terms will not help people who lose their jobs.  Sharga said he sees another big wave of foreclosures hitting the market next year as a result of rising unemployment rates, which are expected to peak during the first quarter of 2010, and the resetting of adjustable rate mortgages to higher rates.  Sharga also said that the real estate market is being hurt by a "shadow inventory" of 400,000 to 500,000 homes, which have been taken foreclosed and taken back by lenders, but have not been put back on the market for resale.  I have been saying that the number of REO's far exceeds the number being offered for sale for a while now.  When the Option ARM's start to reset this is going to break the proverbial flood gates wide open.

Of course there was the normal refrain of from a former president of the National Association of REALTORS who wants Congress to expand the home purchase tax credit to $15,000 for all home buyers.  Per my previous blog posts I think this is a bad idea because it will artificially inflate home prices resulting in more bubble bursting when the tax credits are finally stopped.

The forum organizer, Bruce Norris, recommended that Congress take the following actions to help the real estate market:

1. "Increase the number of loans made available to well capitalized investors: Expand Fannie and Freddie loan programs from a maximum of 10 loans per investor to an unlimited number of loans for qualified investors."
2. "Make the 203K FHA loan program available to investors: A 203K loan allows a property needing work to be purchased “as is,” but included in the loan amount is money for repairs. The loan funds both the purchase and rehab of the property. Investors need this loan now, but this loan is currently only available to owner occupants. FHA previously made this loan available to investors, but stopped the practice in 1996 when HUD ran out of lender owned, fixer uppers. Banks could solve the vacant house problem by giving investors back the 203K loan program."
3. "Eliminate the 90-day waiting period before a repaired property can be sold to a buyer using an FHA loan: Investors who purchase fixer uppers can often completely repair the property in a matter of weeks. But the current law prohibits investors from reselling the property within 90 days. The assumption is that fraud must be taking place if a property is resold within 90 days. It’s ridiculous to assume that every investor who purchases a property, improves and resells it is committing fraud. All this policy does is increase investors’ costs of purchasing and rehabbing vacant homes.
4. Allow loans to be taken over by credit-qualified new buyers with no down payment. Through this process, which was successfully used in the 1980s, new buyers simply step in and take over the loan payments. The only stipulation is that the loan has to be made current at the close of escrow. The U.S. currently has about one million owners who will not be capable of keeping their homes without a huge discount on the principle balance. Many of these properties have fixed rates at very favorable rates. Allowing willing and capable buyers to come in and take over these loans would help contain the spread of foreclosures across the country.

I agree with Mr. Norris' first 3 points, but I fail to see how allowing delinquent loans to be "taken over by credit-qualified new buyers with no down payment" will help the market when the real problem is that the loan balances exceed property values.

Thornberg, thought that it is "not realistic to assume that our nation’s economic problems will be solved by increased regulation or by presidential action. The economy simply needs some time to heal itself.  I have tremendous faith in the U.S. economy rebounding again in the future.  When we come out of this in two or three years, we’re going to have cheap housing and a weak dollar, which will be good for exports."

I agree with Mr. Thornberg in that cheap housing is good for the economy. The problem is that the Obama Administration is doing so much to artificially prop up housing values.  Why would they do this?  The answer is that the Obama Administration and their Democrat friends are bailing out their Wall Street and banking buddies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG and Goldman Sachs.  Don't believe me?  Go find out who the largest campaign contribution recipients from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG (hint: Barney Frank, Christopher Dodd and Barack Hussein Obama).

In my market in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford Couny TN in particular) I believe that the effect of all this will be worse than average due to higher than average unemployment rates and foreclosures.  Housing prices in Middle Tennessee will continue to fall well into 2012.

National Association of REALTORS: Existing-Home Sales Decline in August 2009

According to this National Association of REALTORS (NAR) news release, Existing-Home Sales Ease Following Four Monthly Gains, sales of existing homes (includes single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops) declined by 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August 2009 from a pace of 5.24 million in July 2009. According to NAR, this is 3.4% above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. Over the previous four month span from April 2009 through July 2009, sales had risen a total of 15.2%.

The news release states that according to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, the first time home buyer tax credit is working. The release quotes Yun as saying "Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions. Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can’t take a housing rebound for granted."

The news release goes on to state that a NAR practitioner survey shows that for August 2009, first-time buyers accounted for 30% of home sales and that distressed homes accounted for 31% of home sales. Both of these figures were unchanged from July 2009.

The release goes on to quote Yun as saying "The recent trend shows broad improvement in most of the country, but with an expected rise in foreclosures over the next 12 months we need to maintain a healthy level of ready buyers to absorb the inventory. An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market. Now that the market is showing some momentum, we have an opportunity to achieve a more rapid and broader stabilization in home prices. Extending and expanding the tax credit also would help to keep other families from becoming upside down in their mortgages or risk foreclosure. When home prices show sustained gains, credit will become more widely available to other sectors because Wall Street will be able to price risks confidently. Stable home values will also allow more families to purchase consumer products and provide a strong boost for the broader economy."

According to the news release, in the Southern US, existing-home sales were down 3.1% to an annual pace of 1.89 million in August, but are 1.6% above August 2008. The median price in the South was $157,400, which is 11.0% lower than the same period in 2008.

While this seems fine and dandy, I have a problems with the "spin" on these statistics.

• Number of Home Sales - Other than for REALTORS and other folks who generate income when homes sell, and as a result, need to turn units, this figure is just not that important unless it reaches extreme levels as it says little about the overall health of the housing market.  For example, if homes were worth $1 there would be a lot of sales, but the market would be devastated.
• Home Prices - The sale prices of homes declined by 10%+ in every region of the US.  This is further evidence that the market has not hit bottom yet.
• Tax Credit - I find Yun's comments including "An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market." to be laughable.  First, qualified buyers do not need a government subsidy to "enter the market" buy a home. What they need are AFFORDABLE HOMES, which the market is giving us as only a free market can!  We do not need an artificial government subsidy that will temporarily inflate home prices only to see those prices fall when the subsidy is discontinued. Yun says he want to have home prices "show sustained gains" so that "credit will become more widely available." Given that this whole financial mess was caused by credit being too widely available it is utterly foolish to try to expand credit further.  All we need to save the economy is to have homes reach prices that are sustainable based on people's incomes, not debt.

Moody's Puts Us in a Bad Mood: House Prices Won’t Return to Peak Until 2020

According to this HousingWire.com article, House Prices Won’t Return to Peak Until 2020: Moody’s Analyst, a Moody’s Economy.com report predicts that "at least another decade will pass before housing prices return to peak 2006 levels." For those of you who have been following my blog you already know that I have been saying this for months now. In fact I have been saying that it will be at least 10 years before housing prices return to their 2005-2006 peak levels. The article quotes the Moody's report, written by Moody's Analyst Celia Chen, as stating "The correction will be not only deep but also lengthy. "The national price level will not regain its 2006 high until 2020, a peak-to-peak housing cycle of 14 years."

Despite the 2020 projection being on the low end of my estimate (i.e. AT LEAST 10 years), this HousingWire.com article actually confirms what I have been saying since according to the HousingWire.com article, "the projection seems conservative in light of historic data."  The article states that the Moody's analyst wrote that after the Great Depression, housing prices took nearly 20 years to return to their previous peak. the report also shows that in Japan 15 years passed since their residential market lost half of its value and there are still no signs of a recovery.

The HousingWire.com further quotes the Moody's report as saying "housing prices will regain normalized rates of appreciation during the first five years of the recovery. But the decline in prices and the subsequent recovery vary by region to region. In some states, prices will decline 6% or less and recovery will come before 2014. Other areas that have experienced declines of more than 46% won’t get back to 2006 prices until 2023."

My prediction for Middle Tennessee is that the Middle TN housing market will not recover peak home values until 2023-2025.  This is due to the following characteristics of the Middle Tennessee housing market:

• The Middle TN housing market peaked much later than most areas of the country with a peak of late 2007/early 2008 instead of early to late 2006.
• Extreme overbuilding during that peak especially in the higher price ranges.  This supply balance will continue for many years since for some reason people are still building here.
• Tennessee has historically high rates of personal bankruptcy which will cause higher than average foreclosure and short sale rates.
• Tennessee has higher than average unemployment rates, which will also cause higher than average foreclosure and short sale rates.